ENERGY REALIST

At the Regional Test Center in Williston, Vermont, researchers are examining how framed (in the background) and frameless (in the foreground) solar photovoltaic modules handle snowy conditions. | Photo Courtesy: Sandia National Laboratories
The Real world inefficiency of wind and solar

Update – Don’t believe me, well listen to an acolyte of the radical Lefties. Better watch Michael Moore’s film, ‘Planet of the Humans‘ before it gets successfully banned.

For Canadians suffering through this bitter winter cold snap, I thought I would crunch some actual numbers to see how some various forms of power generation were performing.

As a preamble, when it comes to generating electricity there are a few terms to understand. For example, just because a wind turbine or a natural gas generating station is rated for ‘X’ amount of Megawatts (MW), that does not mean that it is the constant output. It is a maximum output. In reality, the wind is not constantly blowing, the sun does not shine at night, and power plants get taken offline for repairs and maintenance.

The following chart shows the relative ‘efficiency’ of US power generation facilities. Note that nuclear power far and away is the most efficient power source.

But let’s see how some real world Canadian energy sources stack up against one another.

My analysis for the following graphs comes directly from the Alberta Utilities Commission Annual Electricity Data reports which can be accessed here. I took the last five years of data (2014-18) to determine the efficiencies of each type of power generation.

The first graph lists the percentages of each type of power generation in Alberta over the five year time period. The total installed capacity added up to 80875 MW.

Solar installations totalled 30 MW for 2017 & 2018. The Others category was power from fuel oil, diesel, & waste heat.

The total output of electrical generation over the time period was 415,652 GW and below is the percentages of how the power was produced.

Solar accounted for .1 GW of power generated in 2017 & 22.4 GWs in 2018

For comparison purposes, I produced a graph from just the 2018 energy production statistics.

After crunching the numbers, I came up with the following efficiency factors for Alberta’s energy sources.

Solar efficiency for 2018 increased to 17% with 30 MW of installed capacity

Compared to the US figures, the Alberta numbers are all more or less in the ballpark.

Environmentalists would have you believe that Canada should divest themselves of all fossil fuels and make the switch to renewable, ‘green’ energy such as wind and solar. Well here are some numbers regarding that type of action.

In 2018, Alberta coal and natural gas produced just over 76,000 GWh of power. Alberta has 900 wind turbines with a maximum output of 1500 MW. In order to replace coal and oil using the Alberta efficiency rating of 31.2%, the province would need 17,000 extra turbines. Using numbers obtained from SaskWind, each turbine would have a footprint of about .75 acre/MW which equates to 32 sq miles. Now because of turbulence, landscape, environmental, etc. issues, you can’t just jam all the turbines together so they need to be spread out. SaskWind figures about 87 acres/MW which translates to turbines being scattered out into a 3750 sq mile area.

Working through the same exercise with solar being used to replace coal and natural gas, I used Suncyclopedia’s average of five acres for one solar MW installation. Using the US solar efficiency number of 25%, the land area needed would be 273 sq miles. Using the Alberta efficiency number of 17%, land area is just over 400 sq miles.

So what’s the big deal with switching over? Well there’s many inherent problems with wind and solar that do not seem to justify the incredible amounts of money that have been thrown at the technologies. But they are the darlings which every Western government seems intent on promoting.

The following Alberta energy graphs prepared by Reliable AB Energy for December 2019 illustrate better than words why wind and solar are poor energy alternatives. Follow Reliable AB Energy on Twitter for daily updates on the state of Alberta’s energy sources.

Imagine if you were relying only on electricity from solar from Dec 8 – 16. What about the Dec 11 – 15 time frame for wind? These power sources are too unreliable to be counted upon especially during a brutal cold weather event such as what regularly occurs across Canada at this time of year. The back-up power plants would make the wind and solar systems redundant. So why would we have them in the first place?

Wind and solar energy are expensive boondoggles that will never replace better forms of energy, particularly nuclear or even clean-burning technologies for coal. It is time to stop wasting Canadian’s money on these pipedreams.

Blair’s LinkedIn Profile

Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.

PRAIRIE SCRIBBLER – SOUTH MOUNTAIN PRESS, VOLUME 11, NUMBER 46


A Manitoba Hydro solar installation. Photo: Solar Manitoba

***Original published in South Mountain Press, March 1, 2019***

The Future of Renewable Energy in Manitoba

Energy. Literally, humanity’s existence revolves around harnessing various forms of energy. It started with ancient humans surviving the dark night by learning to make fire. Later, great civilizations sprung up by utilizing the wind to explore the world in armadas of ships. A patent for the first real internal combustion engine was granted in 1854 London and soon the world was taking advantage of what had been a relatively useless substance called crude oil. Finally, in the 20th Century, humanity created the technical expertise to understand the very nature of the atom in order to produce nuclear electricity.

Now, in the 21st Century, there is mounting pressure for the world to again change energy gears and embrace renewable energy. All governments, including Manitoba’s, have been tackling this issue for decades. But after many decades, has Manitoba made any meaningful headway with respects to replacing old energy technology with new ‘green’ energy technology?

To begin, where exactly does Manitoba derive our power and energy needs from? According to the Manitoba Hydro-Electric Board 67th Annual Report for the 2017/2018 fiscal year, this is how the numbers break down: the grand-daddy of power generation at 96.01% of all of Manitoba’s electricity is created by 15 hydro-electric stations. The natural gas (formerly coal) thermal generating stations at Brandon and Selkirk created .12%. Purchases excluding the wind farms in the south of the province accounted for 1.16% and wind power was 2.72%.

Also, according to Manitoba Hydro’s reports, over 280,000 private and business customers in 132 communities burnt over 2 billion cubic metres of natural gas last year.

In 2005, Manitoba Hydro partnered with a large Ontario energy conglomerate to create the province’s first wind farm by St. Leon. In 2010, Hydro partnered with a large US corporation for a second wind farm nearby in St. Joseph. Total capacity for the 133 wind turbines amounts to peak electricity generation of 258 Megawatts (MW). According to the Board’s Annual Report, the corporation has contracts to buy wind power from the two farms out to 2038.

According to figures starting in 2013, the wind farms have provided 2.6% of the province’s electrical production which amounts to 1 billion wind generated Kilowatt Hours (kWh). Hydro keeps the price paid for wind energy confidential but if you look through Hydro’s Annual Report it can be determined that compensation is in the range of 7.3¢/kWh.

So to meet Manitoba’s 21st Century energy needs, would it make sense for the province to go into a massive wind expansion program? After comparing published costs of the new northern Keeyask Generating Station with the two wind farms, it appears that wind power could be millions of dollars cheaper to produce per MW capacity. But in order to meet the present generating capacity, the province would need over 7000 wind turbines covering an area over 10 times the size of Riding Mountain National Park. Then you return to the problem of what happens when the wind stops blowing (or blowing too much)? No spinning blades, no electrical generation. Just imagine Manitobans shivering in the dark this past February because of lack of wind.

Moving on to the other darling of the green movement, what about solar energy? According to Hydro Media Relations Officer, Bruce Owen, about 650 customers are generating their own electricity (primarily solar photovoltaic) of which they may intermittently sell their excess to Manitoba Hydro. Many of these self-generating customers probably took advantage of Hydro’s 2-year Solar Energy Pilot Program which ran out on May 1, 2018.

One such couple was Shoal Lake area farmers, David and Diana Hyde, who are in their third year of using their solar panel system. They have 72 standard size panels (about 3 X 5 feet in size) that are designed to create about 2/3rds of their farm’s electrical needs. Most of their excess power is produced in the spring and fall and they receive credits back for their winter usage. They were lucky as they were grandfathered into the old rates where they are credited at about 8¢/kWh whereas newer customers are only being compensated at 3.3¢/kWh (rates will increase to 4¢ beginning April 1st).

Although the Hydes are happy with their system, they would not recommend solar to the average home owner. For example, they were able to write off their installation costs as a farm expense. The Hydro Solar Program was great while it lasted but with the lower compensation rates, they would need twice as many panels to replace their current system and their credited hydro this year ran out in January. It would be nice to have mobile panels that could follow the sun, especially in the summer, but Manitoba storms would wreck the panels. In their opinion, the only way solar makes fiscal sense would be for a homeowner who was too far away from the existing grid.

Manitoba Hydro still will provide assistance to homeowners and businesses who are interested in solar power but do not count on any good compensation deals in the near future. According to Mr. Owen, ‘Previously, the price paid for excess energy was aligned with the rate charged for residential electricity. However, the rate charged for residential electricity is structured to recoup the costs of not just electric generation, but also transmission, distribution, maintenance, billing, customer service, emergency response, etc. Those non-energy components account for the majority of the cost of delivering electricity. Therefore, to pay the full residential rate for someone to intermittently generate electricity would be to over compensate them beyond its actual value. The current method uses the previous year’s export spot market power price of electricity which is more equitable for all Manitobans.’

According to the Hyde family, a good solution for the low compensation hydro rates would be if people could just battery store the extra electricity. But in their opinion, current battery technology is too expensive and inefficient.

So despite some token efforts regarding the other ‘green’ energy generation technologies, it appears that Manitoba should stick with renewable hydro-electricity. Until there are technological breakthroughs that negate the fallibility and expense of wind and solar systems, it would make more sense to rely on an energy system that has already had a rock solid reliability of more than a century.

Blair’s LinkedIn Profile

Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.

Offline ! We will start taking orders in

0Hours 0Minutes 0Seconds