coronavirus – MASTER OF NONE

April 17, 2020April 18, 2020

WUHAN CORONAVIRUS REALIST

**Figure 1. COVID-19 cases (n=17,100) in Canada by date of illness onset as of April 16, 2020, 11 am EDT.** So if new Canadian cases started dropping of their own accord as of March 18, why are we still locked up and our economy shuttered? Remember, ‘Social Distancing, Stay Home, Flatten the Curve’ mantras were not in vogue at this point. MB for instance did not have a State of Emergency until March 20.

Post Mortem of Manitoba’s Handling of Coronavirus

UPDATE – Analysis from Israel seems to confirm these Canadian numbers and our experience of declining cases. After looking at world numbers, it appears the virus plays itself out all on its own in about 70 days despite government action or inaction. We might have destroyed our economy for no good reason other than mass hysteria.

Borrowing from my nautical background, there is a document called the Collision Regulations which regulates the safe passage of vessels on the water. In order to prevent collision, ships determine who is the ‘Give Way’ vessel and who is the ‘Stand On’ vessel and then act with due regard to the observance of good seamanship to safely avoid each other.

As an Officer of the Watch on a Navy ship, one of my jobs was to look for possible conflicts with other vessels, work out a plan to avoid them, inform the Captain with my recommendations, follow and execute his orders, monitor the situation until danger of collision was past, then get the ship back on track.

Ideally, you would try to minimize the ship’s detours and time off track as we were always on mission.

Taking another page from my naval career, when lazy leadership wanted to send a message to the sailors, they would enact group punishment. This was particularly detested and unpopular because the many would be unjustly punished for the actions of the few. The reasoning for giving out a general slap across the face was to build unit cohesion and self-policing but the effect was usually just sharp resentment.

Tying these bon mots in with Manitoba’s and indeed most of the World’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, in my opinion, governments did too little, too late. Then when they did start to act, it was a shotgun approach vice a targeted strategy which succeeded in only panicking their populations and subsequently devastating their economies.

Canadian governments knee-jerk reacted to dubious reports from China, horror stories from Italy, and worst case epidemiological modeling which projected apocalyptic, Biblical ‘End of Times’. This has led Canada into the worst crackdown and suspension of civil liberties probably in the history of our country.

The Manitoba government has been regularly issuing Covid-19 Media Bulletins since January 30. Bulletin #53, April 16, lists no new cases (cumulative total 250), 8 in hospital, 4 in ICU, 121 recovered, and 5 deaths. 18,349 Covid-19 tests have been completed. For comparison for the Manitoba 2017-18 flu season: In total, 508 influenza cases were hospitalized including 35 admissions to intensive care units (ICU) and 46 individuals died. Of those hospitalized and deceased cases, 65% and 76% were aged 65 years and older.

Just as a quick aside, it’s being reported that greater than 90% of Canadian deaths are those 60 years and older. (Sounds eerily like the flu stats that I just spoke of.) ‘Dr. Theresa Tam says outbreaks in long-term care homes are the most crucial COVID-19 problem. Tam is urging all Canadians to continue to stay home to keep older people, who are most at risk, from dying. Half of the 734 deaths in Canada from COVID-19 had occurred in long-term care homes.‘ Um, here’s maybe an alternative thought. How about we protect the most vulnerable of our population and keep them in lockdown instead of destroying our economy by keeping everyone else at home?

By using the Way-Back machine, here is a review of the major points of the Manitoba Covid-19 timeline starting with the first Bulletin issued on January 30.

For the month of February, the risk to Manitobans was rated as LOW and people had no need to wear masks.
Early in March, it was recognized that cases were climbing in China and the virus was starting to spread to other countries particularly Iran then Italy. By the end of February, MB had tested 38 people, there were no cases, and Canada had 12 cases.
March 10, the Province started looking for more Personnel Protective Equipment (PPE). They also stated that when dealing with patients with the virus, the patients and their caregivers would be wearing masks. (This went against the Health Canada, Dr. Tam, advice that masks would not work.)
March 11, MB recorded its first case (travel related), people traveling from China, Iran & Italy were asked to self-isolate, the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic. The government stated ‘Those at the greatest risk of severe outcomes include those over 65 years of age, those with underlying medical conditions and those with compromised immune systems.’ The oft-repeated phrase, social distancing, was first introduced and recommendations set.
On March 15, all international travelers coming back to MB were recommended to self-isolated for 14 days. Only travelers with symptoms were going to be tested.

So at this point, the bold action would have been to test and quarantine those travelers coming in from the hotspots. Social distancing practices are always a good idea even when a bad flu or the chicken pox is going around, so good recommendation there. They already knew who the target group was so early lock downs of the nursing homes and hospitals made sense (but really did not happen).

As reported by MB, it looks like Covid-19 cases peaked around April 1 (34 new cases that day) and are flattening out. This ties in with the curve flattening for new cases experienced by Canada as a whole and also calls into question the effectiveness of ‘Social Distancing’ policies. **Graph Source**

Factoring in recoveries, there was a big split in early April which suggests MB has peaked regarding the virus. Source – MB Covid News Bulletins 1 – 49

Crunching the numbers for Covid-19 in MB, tentatively the province peaked for Hospitalizations/ICU visits/Deaths around April 8th. The caveat is the numbers are quite low to start with. Source: MB Media Covid-19 Bulletins 1 – 49

For the next week, testing for the virus ramped up, schools were slated for early closure (March 23 for 3 weeks), events with 250+ were canceled (soon dropped to 50+), daycares, casinos, care homes, surgeries, adult day programs & courts were slated for shutdown. Border measures for drivers were being considered. The Province had 266 ventilators and the Health Science Center was prepping an extra 30 ICU beds.
On March 20, the government hit the panic button by declaring a State of Emergency. Here is the actual legislation. The directives first applied to public areas, not work. Groups of people of 50+ were banned. The phrase, ‘Flatten the Curve’ was first used as was this being termed a ‘Historic Pandemic’. There were 19 cases (all travel related) in the province.
On March 23, schools were closed and Manitobans really started into ‘social distancing’ protocols.
On March 25, a female in her 60’s was the first hospitalization and ultimate death.
On March 27, the government launched a $4.5M program to help combat anxiety related to the virus. Only groups of 10 people were now allowed. Information checkpoints were set up at provincial borders and the two main airports. Domestic travelers coming to MB were also supposed to self-isolate by this point.
March 30, the Province moved to really shut things down. No diners in restaurants, no non-essential business, school was cancelled indefinitely, transit was still running but social distancing and flattening the curve were the watchwords. This was when the big push for people to ‘Just Stay Home‘ was used by the Premier. At this point, the province had done 8550 tests, there were 103 cases, 3 in hospital, 2 in ICU and 1 death.
April 1, a research program with QC, AB and MB regarding the drug hydroxychloroquine was announced. Also, ‘new screening procedures are being implemented for staff working in acute and long-term care facilities.’ This was odd because the hospitals and nursing homes were supposed to have already been on lockdown. The screening is a little hit and miss because many care staff are not having their temperature taken.
April 5, the cost to Manitobans estimated at an extra $10B
April 6, Manitobans are told to stay home for Easter, there was a no ‘non-essential’ travel advisory and we still had to flatten the curve.
April 8, social distancing was credited with keeping new cases low as they had seemed to have peaked back around April 1 but we were cautioned not to let up. Considering, really hardcore social distancing had not reached the 2 week point, this seems like a dubious claim.
On April 9, the government really hammered home the message that Easter weekend should be spent alone in your house. Operation Safe Apart was announced with pre-set fines of $486/person and $2542/business for people who were not social distancing enough. There’s a snitch line to report your neighbors and extra officers have been hired. That curve was not going to flatten itself despite evidence that MB may have peaked in early April. Hospitals and ICUs have never come close to being pushed to capacity up to this point.
As of April 16, cases have slowly flattened out to 250 in total with 121 people recovered. 8 people are hospitalized, 4 in ICU and 5 total deaths.

Returning to my Navy examples, our governments saw a potential conflict, started to gather pertinent information, slowly began to react, but instead of acting rationally, they hit the panic button. Then they forgot to monitor the situation so that we could get our country back on track.

To be fair, I can see where confusion would happen as China was lying through their teeth regarding their experience with the virus. (But China always lies so why would anyone take them seriously?) At first, everyone was told human to human transmission wasn’t possible. The risk to Canadians was low (ultimately this is going to be true). But it was the 3.4% mortality rate from China, Italy’s experience, and the influential Imperial College paper model that freaked World governments.

Unfortunately, governments are full of risk adverse bureaucrats and spineless politicians. Instead of targeted approaches to a crisis, it is easier to blanket a situation and punish the masses. Catchy propaganda phrases are designed to cow the population into submission.

Canadian governments should have aggressively quarantined people coming from hot zones immediately instead of belatedly bringing those policies in now. It was identified right from the beginning what age groups were most at risk. So why are there calls at this point to protect the nursing homes? I know for a fact that these homes are not being protected as well as they should be. Monitoring the numbers, it is obvious the virus outbreak peaked, the hospitals were never close to being overwhelmed, and the government’s main weapon, social distancing, appears to have had a limited effect.

So for Manitoba, if this entire episode with the Wuhan virus resolves itself and ultimately ends up being less deadly than a regular flu season, was it worth Manitoba going an extra $10 Billion in debt? Was it worth crippling our economy, throwing thousands out of work and into bankruptcy, and exponentially increasing people’s rates of anxiety, depression and ultimately suicide?

Other World jurisdictions have announced plans to start coming out of this ‘Great Pause’. Will Manitoba come to its senses and restart our economy or will they double down on their policy of keeping us locked down?

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March 23, 2020March 27, 2020

SURVIVOR OF THE GREAT 2020 TP HOARDER PANIC

Time to Pull back on the Coronavirus Hysteria

February 25 Update: There is some cautious optimism that this virus isn’t as deadly as the prediction models are making it seem. In a nutshell, because the very common coronavirus has been around for years during flu season, people infected don’t realize they’ve contracted the virus. They may have very mild to no symptoms but pass it around anyways.

So when some higher numbers of fatalities out of Wuhan started to appear and a government crackdown happened, the rest of the World took notice. Mortality rates appeared quite high but as explained in the following articles, infection rates are probably massively underestimated. The true mortality rate could be as low as .06% which is lower than the annual flu.

So maybe soon we can all take a deep breath, stop freaking out, and approach this issue a little more rationally. We’ll see how the numbers from all the testing in the States works out when more data comes in.

‘Is the Coronavirus as Deadly as They Say?’: Professors claim more data needed to know mortality rate

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

If COVID-19 Killed 1.4% of People With Symptoms in Wuhan, the Overall Fatality Rate Is Likely to Be Much Lower Than People Feared

As an aside, does apocalyptic predictions ring a bell with anyone? You know, stuff like, ‘The World is going to end in 12 years’; ‘Ban plastic straws because it’s killing all the sea turtles’; ‘Arctic Ice, snow, polar bears, glaciers are a thing of the past’; ‘Shut down all the pipelines & tar sands because they’re killing the planet!’; ‘Manmade CO2 levels are sending the planet over the tipping point.’

It would seem that the same players, Lefties, Liberals, MSM, that have fallen for and pushed these apocalyptic scenarios bit hard for this latest gambit. They seized down on the worst case predictions, people have panicked, the World shut itself down.

Our populations are primed for Doomsday. Movies, TV, and the media push the worst of scenarios or they aren’t noticed. Keep the people in a constant state of panic and the overlords can do whatever they please. Trudeau almost had absolute control of the country without Parliamentary oversight for two years. Thankfully, the Conservatives stood up to the dictator.

Stand on Guard Canada. It isn’t the coronavirus you should be afraid of, it’s your government.

From the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy (Douglas Adams), “It is said that despite its many glaring (and occasionally fatal) inaccuracies, the Hitchhiker’s Guide to the Galaxy itself has outsold the Encyclopedia Galactica because it is slightly cheaper, and because it has the words ‘DON’T PANIC’ in large, friendly letters on the cover.”

Carrying on with the Hitchhiker’s theme, the Earth and it’s denizens were originally described as Harmless then later edited to be Mostly Harmless after the alien field researcher, Ford Prefect, spent many years exploring the planet after he was marooned in Britain.

I would like to segue briefly over to how cattle act during calving season since that’s what we have been doing on the farm for several weeks. Normally, these animals are quite placid, cooperative, and act rationally as much as any cow would. But during calving when their hormones are racing, they often act irrationally or even dangerously. Sometimes they come to their wits on their own; occasionally a good, solid two-hander with a stout stick is needed across their forehead; and for one or two, it’s off to the cull pen before someone gets killed. It isn’t the animal’s fault, they’re just reacting to a very stressful time in their lives. But if a firm hand isn’t present to do what needs to be done then someone could end up hurt or dead.

As it is so with the literal hysteria surrounding the virus outbreak. Emotions are running wild and people are starting to act irrationally. Really, if this was ‘THE APOCALYPSE‘, should your first instinct be to go out and hoard toilet paper?

I place firm blame on our supposed political leaders and the media for whipping everyone into such a frenzy over this health issue. Our yellow-belly Prime Minister decided to run and hide after possible exposure to the virus. If anyone should be getting tested immediately it should be essential personnel. They do not have the luxury of self-isolating for two weeks. Trudeau was never cut out to be a leader and Canada is suffering badly from multiple crises that he has not been able to handle.

Another major blame to lay at the feet of the government is the incomprehensible policy of keeping the borders open even to this minute to people arriving from other world hot zones. The vast majority of positive virus cases in Canada were imported from overseas and mostly by air. A firm policy regarding testing and quarantining border crossers needed to be implemented. The Leftie ideals of open borders has screwed over the country.

That was the inaction that has gotten regular Canadians worked up wondering what they should be doing. In the wake of that, many provinces have over-reacted and have essentially enacted martial law through declaring states of emergency.

Poof! Just like that, our civil liberties are gone.

If you are interested, here are the Federal Emergencies Act legislation and the Manitoba Emergency Measures Act. The penalties, which are administered through summary conviction, are steep. Up to a year in jail and/or a $10,000 fine for an individual. Interesting tidbit from the MB Chief Public Health Officer who declared a $50,000 fine limit and $500,000 limits on corporations. I would be clarifying those numbers as it is not in the present legislation. This is precisely why government should not be enacting these powers willy-nilly. Tossing our freedoms aside should not be done lightly and normally the population would have been demanding a damn good reason for these draconian measures.

You have probably noticed on social media that there are reports of people clamouring to literally ‘bring the hammer’ down on people who are not ‘social distancing’ themselves properly. All over FB and Twitter, people are being chastised for the crime of being outside. Every province has enacted their Emergency Acts. Arrests are starting. Do people realize that we are coming dangerously close to Stalinist Russia?

There is a line where government should act with more authority but in general, it should not because of the inevitable abuse of power. In my personal opinion, after studying all of the reports from how this virus has been handled, Canada does not need a mass lockdown using government force.

Here is some of my reasoning. The Federal government reports over 100,000 tests to date. As of the 23rd of March, Canada has about 1500 cases with 21 deaths. I also follow the MB news releases. MB has 20 cases, all travel related with one non-critical hospitalization. The province has done thousands of tests and has testing stations set up in various locations.

This virus has been compared to the Spanish Influenza. It is not. That H1N1 virus vicously attacked young, healthy adults. The coronavirus mainly is fatal to older people with chronic health conditions particularly lung disorders. Here’s the Italian numbers: average age of victims: 79.5 y/o; only 5 victims below 40, all of whom already suffered other illnesses; and only 3 victims in total did not have other contributing illnesses.

Here is an Imperial College of London paper which also concludes that the oldest in our populations would suffer the greatest. 50% of the infected in China were not even considered as cases. It was the 80+ year olds who suffered the highest mortality rates.

Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020 Download

***UPDATE on the Imperial College paper that walks back the dire predictions***

Here’s another interesting, optimistic article from a Nobel Prize winning chemist: Nobel Prize winner shares some good news about the coronavirus pandemic

Canada and the rest of the world needs a coordinated strategy that is based on reasoned logic before we all become victims of dictatorial edicts and destroy our economies. Targeted plans to protect those who are most at risk need to be enacted instead of mass government enforced lockdowns.

If people were falling over dead in the streets, that would be one thing. But they’re not. The majority of people catching this virus will have mild to no symptoms. Canadian cases are barely rising when they should be spiking if this bug was as contagious as it is made out to be. All the testing should have bumped the numbers substantially, but it hasn’t. Hardcore ‘social distancing’ only just started in the last few days, so those already infected Canadians should have gotten many more sick but again where are the numbers? We didn’t ‘flatten the curve’ that fast.

Being safe and not sorry only works if the cure isn’t worse than the disease. Ironic that Canada just went through a period of mass protests where civil liberties were sacrosanct even against popular opinion. Now, it appears Canadians are eager for massive government crackdowns despite shaky reasoning.

The MSM doesn’t help. Here’s a good article on how the media has been more useful at spreading panic instead of useful context about the whole issue. Canadians are under siege and constant ‘COVID -19’ bombardment. It’s no wonder many people are freaking out and are almost literally blockading themselves in their homes.

I will finish with these everyday recommendations: practice good hygiene; if you are feeling sick, stay away from others, particularly the old and sickly; turn off social media and the news, especially if you are feeling freaked out; be patient with the frontline workers, they are stressed and doing their best; it is always a good strategy to use extra civility with others, many people are outright panicking during this latest crisis. Start with a kind word before going straight for the two-hander upside the head. Mind your own business about what other people are doing, if they want to lock themselves down, fine, it’s their choice. If they are out for a walk in the park, piss off with the hostile attitude that they’re contributing to the ‘Walking Dead World Apocalypse‘. You do you and I’ll do me.

Despite the MSM’s fervent wishes and the preponderance of popular Hollywood tales promoting ‘End Times‘, this virus is not ending anything. It will be sad that many of the most sick and aged are going to be the bulk of the victims. Locking down old age homes and hospitals hopefully was an early priority. Not to sound cold, but elderly, sick people dying is a part of life.

What is also life, is that with all this social isolation, Canada is going to have a Christmas ‘Covid-19’ Baby Boom. New life always finds a way.

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Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.