Blair is a personification of a 'Jack of All Trades and Master of None'. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
Gen. Wayne Eyre — shown here addressing a repatriation ceremony at the Osan Air Base in Pyeongtaek, South Korea in 2018 — was named chief of defence staff last month. He replaced Art McDonald, who stepped aside following claims of sexual misconduct. (Jung Yeon-je/Associated Press)
MND & CDS Set to Apologize to Sexual Misconduct Victims
”Each human being shall have all of these in him, and they will constitute his nature. In some, there will be high and fine characteristics which will submerge the evil ones, and those will be called good men; in others the evil characteristics will have dominion, and those will be called bad men.”
Mark Twain
This entry was prompted by a response of a Military Mom who will not be accepting the upcoming apology from the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) regarding cases of sexual harassment and misconduct. The following is to hopefully put the unique nature of serving in the CAF into context. It is not to excuse abhorrent behavior, it is more of a ‘It is what it is’ treatise.
Newly enlisted Canadians have their first contact with the real CAF when they pass through ‘The Green Door’ for the start of Basic Training. It is the beginning of an experience which cannot accurately be described to the ‘civvies’. They enter a world totally foreign to their previous life unless they have been coached through time in Cadets or by family military members.
To be honest, it’s not all honour and integrity. Quite a bit of the military experience is ugly and will bring out the worst of a human being due to the very nature of the beast. For this article, the focus will be on the taboo subject of sex in the military.
Think for half a second, what is going to happen when you throw a group of fit young men and women together? There are any number of reality TV shows broadcast that take all the mystery out of that question. So in that group mentioned, many are far away from home for the first time; they are under peculiar, incredible stress; they are living, breathing, working, partying with each other in a unit which is in many ways tighter than their family bonds. Toss in liberal amounts of alcohol during infrequent down times and what exactly do you think is going to happen?!?
They’re going to fuck like sex crazed bunnies!
The CAF has a very high men to women ratio, more so in the Army/Navy versus the Air Force. When there is a ten or twenty to one ratio even the wallflowers get second looks. An amazing transformation occurs when women are out of Combats and ready for a night out. It is quite natural that military women get hit on a lot by military men. It is literally a numbers game and incidentally the vast majority of them end up married to those military men.
But there are plenty of guys (and gals) just looking for a good time. Again, how many websites like Tinder, Grindr, Lov, etc. are dedicated to casual, no-strings sex? The military has their own terms for casual hookups such as, your ‘deployment wife’, your ‘ship wife’, ‘Pig in the Port’, etc. Military life puts particular stressors on people and they relieve themselves just like everyone else does.
Men get ‘handsy’ but it gets excused because it just happens in the Mess when they are tipsy. Women get slutty and start playing the boys off against each other because they like the fuss they create. Men make sexual moves on women and/or men because they thought they had ‘the sign’. The members of military units are literally cheek by jowl at times for months on end. The human psyche has to unburden itself and at times in a very ugly sexual fashion.
The Medical Infirmary (MIR) at CFB Kingston used to have a genital warts Parade each Wednesday. Most young men or women at that point were probably having ‘Buyer’s Remorse’ regarding their hookups. As for those sexual liaisons, many of them could probably be termed sexual assault due to the fact that the women were probably blitzed out due to alcohol. If a girl is almost passed out, it would be difficult to state that she was a 100% willing participant. The smart ones employ a stalwart Wing Man to protect them when they black out. The guy was probably just as drunk but of course that is no excuse. To be honest, what percentage of sexual episodes society wide do not have some element of substance enhancers to help lubricate the situation?
So what’s the solution for the CAF for them to curb what seems to be rampant sexual harassment? Even at the highest levels it is a problem as evidenced by the numerous, high profile cases of the most senior officers being guilty of sexual offences. These offences of a sexual nature seem endemic to the military despite many years of concerted effort to wipe it out.
When women first came into the CAF, this was one of the reasons people wanted to keep them out. But that ship has sailed and women are here to stay. The Russians used women in combat due to manpower shortages but they were segregated to their own all female units. That would be impractical for the CAF. The only viable solution is to recognize that members of the CAF are recruited from Canadian society at large and that they are human beings who come encumbered with all that entails.
Human nature is human nature despite Operation Honour, despite official apologies, despite the howling of the aggrieved. The CAF does take offences of a sexual nature very seriously and there is zero tolerance for the true predators. They are punished severely as they should be.
People are attracted to each other and that attraction can lead to acts of a sexual nature. Put a group of them under incredible stress, throw in some un-inhibitors, usually in the form of copious amounts of alcohol and bad stuff can happen. To remedy this, the leaders of the CAF need to recognize when situations are likely to get out of hand and then take positive action. As an example, woman Petty Officers would turn back a Junior Rank at the Brow before stepping ashore due to their choice of attire. Or, as the trend has become, military social events are not all about getting black-out drunk anymore.
Unfortunately, despite best efforts, bad decisions will be made and the Base Padre will continue to have visits from teary eyed Privates.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
When you point the finger, more fingers point back at you
The Sexual Smear is Mightier than the Sword
So when they continued asking him, he lifted up himself, and said unto them, He that is without sin among you, let him first cast a stone at her.
John 8:7
***Feb 05 Update – Global News is now reporting that The Canadian Forces National Investigation Service (CFNIS) has opened an investigation into possible improper behaviour on the part of the former CDS. There was also an important change to the narrative regarding the mystery military woman where the relationship between the two is now described as ‘intimate’. No extra information is provided that would lead us to believe the two were having sexual relations, neither person has claimed they were hooking up. Maybe Global could quit with the yellow journalism and the smearing campaign until some actual information from the investigation is made public.***
To briefly summarize the Global News article, the former Chief of Defence Staff has been accused of sending a 2012 email (three years before he became the CDS) to a female Corporal that contained the suggestion of ‘the prospect of going to a clothing optional vacation destination with her.‘ No context was provided regarding their full exchanges and the Corporal never filed an official complaint but a comment was sent to the CAF Ombudsman. The other incident was reported to Global News via a third party. Sometime in 2019, it appears that Gen Vance had been ‘sexting’ with a female subordinate whom he had previously dated back in 2001. They also seem to have privately met at least three times outside of work over the last couple of years. Gen Vance says nothing sexual happened. Global News contacted the mystery military woman who confirms these facts and wishes to remain anonymous.
Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Jonathan Vance speaks during a news conference on the findings of the Statistics Canada Survey on Sexual Misconduct in the Canadian Armed Forces in Ottawa on Nov. 28, 2016. – Chris Wattie / Reuters
The irony has not been lost on people that one of the first major actions of Gen Vance upon becoming CDS was to launch Operation HONOUR which was the CAF’s response to a damning April 2015 Deschamps Report alleging ‘endemic sexual misconduct throughout virtually all levels of the Canadian Forces.’
By the way, there is no regulation which says you cannot have consensual sex with anyone else in the CAF. There are time and place orders such as while on deployment, you should not be in each other’s direct chain of command, no professional reprisals or rewards should result from the relationship, and in the Navy you were supposed to ‘declare’ your relationship to your Chain of Command (COC). Back in the 80’s, an officer was not supposed to be hooking up with Non Commissioned Members (NCMs). Thankfully, that stupid order was rescinded.
There is a lot to unpack here, so I will start with a few of my thoughts in no particular order:
People are disappointed that Gen Vance appears to be ‘cheating’ on his wife, Kerry Vance, despite the lack of evidence of actual sexual relations. To that I say, so what? If the guy is cheating/thinking about cheating on his wife it is literally no business of yours or anyone else’s. Of course, there are work considerations to be mindful of which if that is taken care of then there is no argument other than morals. The relationship between a husband and his wife is theirs to deal with. Maybe the wife is a total bitch. Maybe they have an open marriage. You live your life and they can live theirs.
As an aside, the hiding of information like this was used by the military to turf homosexuals and lesbians back during the Cold War. The reasoning was a Soviet agent could compromise a service member and blackmail them. So if the CAF found out about your non-heterosexual orientation they would rescind your security clearance and boot you out.
People point to the unbalanced power structure between Gen Vance and the unnamed female subordinate saying it perpetuates the culture of military sexual misconduct. Up in the rarified air of the top ranks, you are literally only going to have lower ranks to fraternize with. In Gen Vance’s case, everyone is subordinate to the CDS. What is the solution, make every high ranking member take a vow of eternal celibacy? Maybe the CAF could hire escorts when the boys/girls feel urges so they don’t have to resort to other military members. Is there a possibility of abuse, well duh, that’s all of human history and don’t tell me it’ll be any different if it was a woman instead of a man with the upper hand. People form relationships with those they spend the most time with ie. the people at work because they share similar interests, understand what each other are going through, proximity, etc.
This goes back to the old argument of not allowing women to be part of the military. Everyone knew there was going to be ‘playing’ around when the girls and boys were away together on deployment or exercise. Heck, I had a ship ‘wife’ for a time while I was at sea. We didn’t tell our Chain of Command because we were mature enough not to let it interfere with our work and frankly, it was no one else’s business.
Humans are humans. Put men and women together, add stress, add some alcohol, they have sex. To deny that is to deny human nature. To deny this does not happen frequently in the military is straight ignorance.
For the true victims of sexual harassment and misconduct, yes, that is intolerable and justice should be swift and harsh. This type of misconduct has happened in the past and will happen in the future. For example, down in the Chiefs and POs Mess on the ships, the women had to put up with a lot of grabby hands. ‘Oh, Jim just gets a little too touchy, feely when he’s been drinking‘. Thankfully, the dinosaurs are dying out and the worst of the abuse seems to be passing. But when you have humans working together, there will be all forms of mistreatment that will never be totally eliminated especially so in a military environment merely due to the nature of the work.
Oh, the damning email with the inappropriate sexual remark, well that’s straight out sexual assault! As for inappropriate emails, dig deep enough and everyone has done or said something risqué at some point. If you haven’t, what’s wrong with you? You know who is the worst for black humour and sexual joking? Female nurses. Hang out with them but not if you’re a shrinking violet and have tender ears. I do not see interminable witch hunts admonishing the nursing profession for their inappropriate sexual innuendos.
When the Op HONOUR edicts, power points, and Town Halls started rolling out many of the victims were things like the removal of girlie calendars in the workshops, the curtailing of off-colour jokes, and even the painting over of decades old artwork on ship bulkheads. Sure, it was good to clean up the pig sty atmosphere of too many men gathered together. In some of the larger messes onboard ship, the rumour was porn was playing on the TV 24/7. But when you sweep through with a dragnet of ‘sexual’ correctness, you destroy esprit de corps and everything becomes sterile.
The self righteous had better be careful playing this card too often. Women fought for decades for inclusion and equality in the CAF. But when they get treated like one of the ‘guys’ who knows what stray email or remark will pop up years later to be used as a bludgeon. If it was a problem, deal with it at the time, not multi-years later as a smear tactic. It does not help the image of women in the CAF. What man will ever trust to be alone with a woman for fear of some later accusation?
It is sad when people are so quick to judge and smear others with these moralistic witch hunts. They remind me of the reports of the never-ending Stalin era denunciations where everyone was looking over their shoulder and they lived in fear of the midnight knock on the door. No one is safe when such minor indiscretions can be trotted out to destroy someone’s career and reputation.
Frankly, I do not feel a military member should be so dehumanized as to be absolutely squeaky clean. They will be totally devoid of mercy, understanding, and general humanity. Believe me, I came across a few high ranking RCN pricks who perfectly fit this description and you do not want to be serving under them.
At the end the day, who is going to be hurt or helped by this third party’s vendetta? I am sure Kerry Vance is thrilled to have all this out in the public square with all the associated tongue wagging. The mystery military woman will be dragged into this and face unwanted humiliation and attention. The Corporal never made a formal complaint regarding a off-hand email remark from nearly a decade ago, so what justice will be served here? Military women, in general, lose because this just reinforces the general notion of women’s vindictiveness over minor actions. Last but not least, a decorated, honourable soldier gets to have his name raked through the mud after finishing four decades of faithful service to Canada.
Who gets to profit from these sorry revelations? The disgruntled third party gets to say ‘Ah-ha, got the bastard!‘ The tabloids who pose as our mainstream media get to run salacious stories and garner more clickbait hits. The sanctimonious get to cluck, shake their heads, and wag their fingers.
In my humble opinion, it is disgusting, improper, and unprofessional of Global News to have reported this story in the first place. Gen Vance is no longer the CDS and is retiring soon. Nothing criminal or even untoward happened. This is yellow journalism that used to be reserved for rags like the National Enquirer. This was a hit job, plain, and simple. Do some actual reporting Global and dig up the real reasons and motivations behind these revelations. While you are at it, maybe you could report on Justin and Sophie’s rocky relationship which seems to be the Hill’s worst kept secret but verboten territory.
Gen Vance’s former military enemies from Afghanistan must be laughing their heads off to hear he has been taken down because of a woman. The sexual smear is indeed mightier than the sword.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
A variation of a long running Soviet Union joke on how the State ran the country
***Feb 07 Update – The Justice Centre for Constitutional Freedoms is reporting that the Federal Government is delaying their ‘Lock-Up the Travelers‘ program for a few weeks. Hopefully, some of the backlash from secretly abducting travelers like Ethan McDonald, Nikki Mathis, and Steve Duesing, whose stories are being widely publicized, gave the government something to think about moving forward. Canadian governments seem to operate mostly through gauging public opinion, so if they see the public getting into an uproar over a particular Covid policy, maybe we can get them to back down from some of the more egregious ones. Please share these stories while we have the momentum if you feel healthy Canadians should not be arbitrarily locked up until they prove they are not sick.
Western Standard has been good with articles on detainees. Here’s another man, Neil McCullough, who was detained at the same Calgary Westin Airport with Nikki Mathis. He got to spend 11 days cooped up with no representation courtesy of PHAC.***
***Feb 03 Update – Steve Duesing is now free, free that is to go and quarantine at home for another 14 days upon threat of a $1 million dollar fine or three years in jail. This, after two negative Covid-19 tests.***
***Feb 03 Update – Just reported by Joe Warmington for the Toronto Sun, Steve Duesing is still incarcerated in a Toronto hotel. Mr. Duesing reports that there appears to be lots of activity outside of the hotel and Health Canada has indicated they will give an update on Wednesday.
Ethan McDonald is now home with his mother Rebekah in Red Deer. Ms. McDonald created a series of Facebook videos to detail their ordeal and is linked here.***
***Feb 02 Update – Just reported now by Joe Warmington for the Toronto Sun, it appears that on Sunday a number of people were swept up by authorities at Pearson International. One man, Steve Duesing, spoke with the reporter about his ordeal and his fears that many people off his flight are in the same Covid jail.***
This past weekend, Canada joined the ranks of dictatorships such as Iran, China, or North Korea by forcibly kidnapping Canadian citizens at the Calgary Airport and whisking them away to secret quarantine detention centers. You may be forgiven for not being aware of this escalation of Covid enforcement because there has been very little media coverage. CTV News Calgary actually reported on the two people who were taken for forcible quarantine under the headline ‘Concern growing around mandated hotel quarantine restrictions‘. Global News Calgary has only wrote a piece about the hotel association being concerned about irate hotel ‘guests’ (prisoners) being irate with hotel employees. Nothing from CBC yet.
Faytene.TV did a long interview with the abducted woman, Nikki Mathis, (since released) so that the full side of her story plus more of the other abductee’s story, Ethan McDonald, could be told. It can be watched here and here. There is also another interview with Nikki and her husband here. Hopefully, enough heat will come to bear that politicians will finally listen and change course on a simply outrageous policy.
Getting back to the premise of the title of this article, let us delve a little deeper into the anatomy of political scandal. There are plenty to choose from during the best of times but during these unprecedented Covid-19 pandemic times, they are becoming close and personal for all Canadians.
Anatomy of a Political Scandal
The Incident Occurs
The go-to response by politicians is to outright lie, obfuscate, muddy the waters, or deny the incident occurred. Actual government services such as the police when asked direct questions try to not outright lie as they could actually get into real trouble. They will issue terse, direct, factual statements until the higher ups see which way the wind is blowing before they elaborate further. For more sensitive events, they will refer spokesperson interviews higher up the food chain. They will not volunteer extra information as context.
As an aside, is it wise to employ a pathological liar let alone allow them to be in positions of political leadership? If this type of behaviour isn’t tolerated as a trait in your employees then why do we tolerate it in the people who lead our country?
Premier Jason Kenney, to his credit, actually responded to the abduction of the pastor’s wife with this FaceBook post:
Premier Kenney, or more than likely his PR Twitterer staff, is very clever with this tweet. There was some original confusion as to which health authority was involved, mainly because they refused to identify themselves. But this muddies the waters and gives credence to the reports are just ‘rumours’.
Of course, Kenney is not alone when it comes to following this script. Doug Ford outright lied over his knowledge of his Finance Minister’s Christmas Caribbean vacation. Prime Minister Trudeau and his Cabinet just literally spew talking points when point blank asked specific questions. But we are so used to the lying, the public doesn’t even care anymore (normally). It’s de rigueur.
The Incident Grows
This is the stage where the incident grows some legs and starts to gather the ’15 minutes’ of fame. More information becomes available, usually because of media pressure, (sorely lacking in the Covid age as MSM seems to be in lockstep with the government narratives) and the lie starts to fall apart.
Now the politicians try to deflect blame and you get the classic run-around. It’s always someone else’s fault, somebody else is in charge of that, we weren’t aware of the situation, those people acted against my authority, or the classic, ‘We were following orders‘. As for the airport abductions, Kenney has this to say:
Rumours are now reports, it isn’t Alberta agencies to blame but Federal, and really this should be turned back on the people who were taken away. It’s really their faults as they didn’t ‘inform themselves’ properly. I left my comment in the post as it is indicative of the thousands of angry responses directed at the Premier. I am actually surprised that the posts are still available for viewing and commenting.
In dictatorships, they usually try censorship, arrests or executions to try and ‘make the story go away’. In democracies, they can try to let the story naturally run out of steam. This is highly dependant on how much life it receives from MSM. But if the regular news outlets refuse to cover the incident, as alleged by Stockwell Day in the following Tweet, then social media and fringe outlets have to take up the slack.
The Incident Containment is Lost
This is where the lie has been totally blown apart and the public pressure becomes the most intense. Governments can fall at this point because the public is so fed up.
As we saw during the holiday season with travelling politicians and bureaucrats, there was white hot anger on the part of the long suffering Canadian Covid locked-down public. No amount of sorrowful apologies can smooth over the mob demanding blood and heads on a pike.
Savvy politicians, like Premier Pallister, know how to navigate the political minefields as he just punted the chair of the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority for non-essential travel. Boom, gone, no news cycle, no public uproar because clear decisive action was taken and the head is already mounted on the castle wall.
It will be interesting to see where these airport abductions finally end up at with regards to political and institutional fallout. This is hitting a nerve with Joe & Jane Canadian. They are already tired of never-ending and increasing restrictions to liberties as this ‘pandemic’ grinds along.
Politicians seriously misjudged the anger associated with the news of government officials travelling during the Christmas break. It’s entirely possible they will also miss the point where a critical mass of Canadians will stop putting up with their Covid shenanigans. Historically, it is not wise to push the people of this country too far.
There is one last detail every Canadian should think about for a few seconds. If we know that politicians are pathological liars, demonstrably so time and time again, then what else have they been lying to us about all through this period of crisis?
At some point, people and plain reality makes fools and examples of the liars.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
Do you remember that old chestnut, ‘Opinions are like assholes, everyone on social media is an asshole.‘?
Big Tech just permanently removed one of the biggest assholes off of all their social media platforms recently with a coordinated move to de-platform the President of the United States a few days before the end of his term in office. Not content with those actions, there seems to be a move to permanently erase President Donald Trump’s entire existence such as wiping his cameo in ‘Home Alone 2‘. Former aides and advisors are jumping ship faster than rats for fear of permanent blacklisting. Major corporations such as Forbes have outright declared that anyone who worked in the administration are persona non grata. People in news organizations are even comfortable with floating the idea of ‘re-education camps’ for the children of Trump supporters so they can be reprogramed after four years of his Presidency.
Congratulations all you Donald Trump haters, you are emulating the tactics of one of the worst human monsters in all of history.
Getting back to my opening postulate, there are endless examples of double standard assholery from the ‘other side’ but the main thrust of this essay is not the macro scale of the issue but to explore what kind of mechanisms could be explored in order to reign in the general preponderance of assholery present throughout social media.
The unfettered democratization of the World Wide Web has been both an incredible boon and unmitigated curse for mankind. Billions of voices now have the chance to scream to be heard. The planet has not seen this type of democratization since the concept of universal suffrage was implemented. But, just because we are afforded the chance to access and comment on literally every topic, should we have the right to do so without any limits whatsoever?
General suffrage, or the right for all adults to have the vote, was not a popular idea at first. An American historian, Francis Parkman, wrote a long essay published in 1878 entitled ‘The Failure of Universal Suffrage‘, arguing that the great masses of the population should not be allowed to vote.
An excerpt:
When a man has not sense to comprehend the questions at issue, know a bad candidate from a good one, or see his own true interests? When he cares not a farthing for the general good, and will sell his vote for a dollar? When, by a native instinct, he throws up his cap at the claptrap declamation of some lying knave, and turns with indifference or dislike from the voice of honesty and reason? Then his vote becomes a public pest. Somebody uses him, and profits by him. Probably it is a demagogue, possibly a priest, or possibly both. In any case, it is folly to call him a free agent. His inalienable right may perhaps be valuable to him for the bribe he gets out of it; but it makes him a nuisance and a danger to the state. It causes pulpit, platform, and press, to condone his vices, and debauch the moral sense of the people by discovering objects of sympathy in vagabonds, thieves, and ruffians. It gives power to the communistic attack on property, and makes it difficult to deal with outbreaks of brutal violence against which even humanity itself demands measures of the most stern and exemplary repression.
Francis Parkman – ‘The Failure of Universal Suffrage‘ – The North American Review, Jul. – Aug., 1878, Vol. 127, No. 263 (Jul. – Aug., 1878), pp. 1-20
Could not many of these same arguments brought forth against everyone having the vote not be transferred to everyone not having an equal voice on social media? The platforms have devolved into shouting arenas with vitriol dripping from every tweet, post or TikTok video. You can literally call the sky blue and scores of anonymous trolls will call you out for being a misogynistic, white supremacist, hell-born Nazi. Share or post an article and the horde of Pavlov trained hounds will spew pre-programmed insults or praise with zero critical thought regarding the story or even a rudimentary understanding of it past the click-bait title.
Perhaps there should be a means test built into the algorithms of the various social media platforms. Maybe before a patron is allowed to comment, they must submit a short essay or answer a questionnaire to demonstrate they have actually read the article and then have something constructive to add to the conversation. Before a video is posted, a panel of luminaries could judge the relative merits of putting it out into the public sphere. Just before a Tweet is sent, an editor could review the content and spelling for context and thoughtfulness.
Of course, this is all idiotic fantasy, Pandora’s Box was long ago opened and the social media muses will never be confined again without hardcore, draconian interventions.
But not all is doom and gloom as there are diamonds within the Matrix if you search them out. Below is a partial list of organizations and persons which I find are balanced, logical, and whom otherwise I would never have interacted with outside of the ‘net.
ZDoggMD – an excellent source for humour & layman’s medical knowledge
Andy Ngô – an underground reporter who is unmasking Antifa’s domestic terrorism
MPP Randy Hillier – literally the only Canadian politician who has been consistently trying to make some sense out of Canada’s Covid-19 response
MLA Ellis Ross – BC representative trying to lift BC Natives out of poverty through responsible resource development
Viewpoint from the North – Comprehensive list of article pertaining to northern BC issues with an emphasis on the Wet’suwet’en people
Human Progress.Org – Documenting the improving state of the world with data
Would it not be a better world if we all tried to add to the conversation in a meaningful, respective manner? (Plus the occasional cat video, they’re so darn cute!)
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
Chopper4 footage showed smoke from multiple fires rising up in front of the Washington Monument during Washington, D.C.’s third night of protests in response to the death of George Floyd. Video/Photo Credit – NBC4 Washington
Look at all the polite rioters staying within the Capitol Building velvet ropes. Photo Credit – CSPAN2
Who is the Evil Empire/Who are the Rebel Alliance?
“At every period of history, people have believed things that were just ridiculous, and believed them so strongly that you risked ostracism or even violence by saying otherwise. If our own time were any different, that would be remarkable. As far as I can tell it isn’t.” ― Paul Graham
He who writes the ‘History’ gets to dictate what ‘History’ is remembered. Whoever was the ‘evil villain’ or ‘courageous freedom fighter’ depends on whose side you agreed with and your perspective. Moral Relativism enables a person to perform the mental gymnastics to justify what would normally be abhorrent. It is how the great tragedies of the 20th century were allowed to take place.
The rioting which happened at the US Capitol building on January 6, 2021 during the review of the Electoral College votes to confirm who would be the next President, was wrong. Full stop! Joe Biden came out during the fracas and said some strong words to the nation which in my opinion were entirely appropriate given the situation. I recommend that you read the transcript, his speech writer must have writer’s cramp from putting it together so quickly. At the end, reporters were shouting questions and Mr. Biden testily retorted, ‘Enough is enough is enough!’ There was a real expression of feelings from the man who will be the next President.
But contrast this to the deafening silence or outright support from Mr. Biden, Democrats, The Left et al, while America was burned and pillaged this past year by BLM and Antifa thugs. Scores of people have died in those protests whose paroxysms have been in revenge for the ‘unjust’ killing of this or that ‘pillar of the community’ black man. Let me ask you a simple question. If Ashli Babbitt was black and those were BLM rioters, do you honestly believe that building would not have been burnt to the ground right now? But no, the MSM is in overdrive spin mode painting her as a Far Right, QAnon ‘believer’. The narrative is that it was right for this unarmed, non-threatening woman to have been shot down in cold blood (video clip).
Mark my words, this will spill over into a witch hunt of the USAF in a quest to root out the ‘endemic racism’ of the organization.
That is enough about America and their troubles. This article is about how this type of unrest is inevitably coming to Canada. Canadians tut-tut about our silly cousins to the South but it is the height of ignorance to morally justify that we are any better.
People get angry when they believe they are victims of inequality or injustice. Listen to the anger of some of the rioters being interviewed in the Capitol building. The Left shouted for four straight years that Trump and his supporters were the devil incarnate and should be fought against as if they were all Nazi scum. Imagine a nagging, abusive spouse belittling, disparaging, and denigrating you for years on end. Then when you finally snap and give them a black eye, they shout, ‘See, I was right about you all along!’. The newspaper reports on the spousal battery, the neighbors shake their heads, and the feminists have another misogynistic story to tout.
Morally, is it not at least understandable that all people have a breaking point if they are pushed too far?
But it comes back to the narrative and who controls it whether that is the government, the media, tech giants or whoever shouts the loudest with the most followers on social media.
Here’s a small example of spinning and censoring the narrative: As people were starting to polarize into their ‘For’ & ‘Against’ camps regarding the mess at the Capitol building, I came across a FaceBook post of a minor musical celebrity I know, Alana Levandoski. An old acquaintance of mine had bucked the trend of the general comments imploring Alana to not bring race into the debate. Then I tossed in my two cents.
Screenshot of my now censored comment (Thanks to Jeff for saving it for me)
If you go to Alana’s FaceBook page now, all negative comments have been expunged and I am no longer allowed to air my views. In fact, Alana has doubled down on her intolerance of counter-opinion by posting a piece which basically says if you’re white then you must ‘SHUT UP! Go to your room and reflect on your sins!‘
I absolutely understand Alana’s position, she has a certain type of fan base she needs to pander to and it is how she makes her living. But the danger is people get into their little prejudicial, echo bubbles and all the nuances of grey become opposing camps of black and white.
So as America has become a miasma of hate with insults and fists being hurled back and forth, so too, I fear Canada is in for the same fate. The polarization of which Covid, climate, environment, etc. tribe you belong to is starting to hammer away at Confederation. At the best of times, neighbors would be able to weather some hateful discord. But our country is headed towards economic collapse with our out of control government spending and endless Covid lockdowns.
When push comes to shove and everyone’s backs are against the economic wall, will Canadians be that polite anymore? Do not be so vain to not recognize the dangers of what a mob of desperate people will do let alone a mob of desperate politicians.
And when the mob comes, who will they be, Freedom fighters, Terrorists, Saviours, or Despots? It will all be in the perspective of who ultimately writes the tale and who is allowed to tell it.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
*** Dec 30 Update – Nearly 5500 calls were made to the Covid Enforcement Brown shirts over the Christmas period of Dec 21-27. Most of the $1296 personal fines were related to household gatherings. So, thousands of Manitobans ratted on their neighbors. Nice to know who is watching. ***
*** Dec 22 Update – A nearby Municipality has confirmed that the Province is soliciting through Council for persons or organizations to act as their defacto Covid enforcers ‘Eyes & Ears’. This particular Council declined to cooperate. ***
Canary, fink, informer, narc, rat fink, snitch, tattletale are all synonymous terms associated with people willing to report their fellow citizens to the authorities whether it’s on the school playground or the mean streets. Now our 2020 lexicon has a new term added, the dreaded ‘Karen’.
Notice how all the words for a stool pigeon are derogatory in nature? Tattletales run to the teacher to squeal on the mean kids. Collaborators turned in their fellow citizens in totalitarian regimes such as fascist Germany or Stalinst Russia. Now, busybody Karens drop a dime on their neighbors commiting the sin of Covid infractions.
Karens in the Keystone province have been busy since April when you could first start complaining about your neighbor’s pandemic faux pax. If you are interested in the records of Manitoba’s enforcement fines, they can be accessed at the Cross-Departmental Reports section of this link. Businesses are named and shamed for various Covid related infractions which run at $5000 a pop.
All across Canada, there are increasing instances of snitch induced Covid disputes. A widely published social media video from Calgary recently showing a young man, Ocean Wiesblatt, being arrested by Calgary Police Services. If you watch the numerous full length online videos, the situation devolved to the point where a policewoman lost control of herself and pointed a taser at Mr. Wiesblatt with the threat of discharging the weapon. Eventually, he was taken down, his skates forcibly cut off, and he was arrested.
This entire incident was precipitated by an informer, Twitter handle dlo-artist, who had broadcast the following:
Screenshot from dlo-artist’s deleted Twitter account
This Karen has since deleted many of their social media accounts but the person’s home address is still visible. The address is on the other end of town from the Southwood Community Association Rink. Why were they so bothered by the horrible ‘atrocity’ of an extra five people on the ice? Oh, the humanity, 90 minutes and the Covid SWAT teams aren’t dispatched yet?!?
Scrolling through D Lo 168’s patreon and clothing store accounts, which are still active, it would appear that this erotic artist is fond of drawing partially clad/naked Disney heroines in suggestive sexual positions. I would assume that the Walt Disney Company is entirely comfortable with the racy depictions of their creations and that there are no copyright issues.
This is the problem with the snitch game, what goes around comes around. Is it really any skin off your nose if this artist is making a living from ripping off Disney? But was it any of their business to call the cops on a gathering of an extra five people playing outdoor hockey?
Perhaps these Karens who are willing to snitch on Covid rule breakers are motivated by a higher cause. But the weight of evidence, especially from the totalitarian societies of the 20th Century, suggests otherwise. Informants were used to great effect in Stalinist Russia. If you felt slighted by your neighbor, desired his job, his house, or his pretty wife, all you had to do was call up the State, make up a story and late that night the SMERSH black sedans would whisk them away. Of course, you would always be nervously looking over your own shoulder in case you inadvertently crossed someone. Gradually, on a larger scale this devolves into a ‘Lord of the Flies’ situation and everyone lives in terror.
Even here in Canada, it has been recognized that police informants are only rarely to be relied upon, especially when some sort of compensation is involved.
By now it must be clear that jailhouse informers are so unreliable that they tend to undermine criminal trials… Their testimony has all too often resulted in a wrongful conviction… How many wrongful convictions must there be before the use of these informers is forbidden or, at least, confined to very rare cases.
The current trend of Canadian provinces setting up dedicated Covid Snitch lines is unsettling. Manitoba has a COVID Tip Line for tattling on your neighbors who might notice you are having guests over for Christmas supper. The Province went out of its way to authorize extra personnel with the ability to hand out tickets. Indeed, the Province went so far as to hire a private security firm to bolster the numbers.
What is worse is it seems that authorities are not just content with ‘Team Manitoba’ doing the right thing and volunteering to tattle. There are rumours that small towns now have PAID Covid snitches. I reached out to the Manitoba government and Crime Stoppers for comment. According to a spokesperson from the Manitoba Communication Services, the Province has not adopted this policy nor condones it. But, according to a Municipality in my area, the Council was approached by the Province to see if there was anyone or organization in town who would act as their Covid infraction ‘Eyes & Ears’. This particular Council declined to cooperate.
I predict this widening network of ratting out of your neighbors and local businesses over having a guest over or not wearing a mask, will not end well.
The young hockey player only mouthed off to those cops but he did not resist arrest other than passively stand on the ice. It was the two women officers who lost control and almost tasered him. How long will it be before someone gets shot and killed over something as stupid as not wearing a mask?
Then on the flip side, have you heard of the phrase ‘Snitches get Stitches’? It’s pretty easy to figure out in a small town who is ratting people out. Small town gossip travels faster than a viral video and the end result could easily end in bloodshed. Is that really the intent of health regulations that are supposed to be ‘protecting’ us?
The Covid-19 pandemic has started to unleash the brutish nastiness we are willing to inflict on our fellow man in the name of the ‘public good’. I suggest reading Christopher Browning’s novel ‘Ordinary Men‘ in order to better understand the concerns raised by people opposing the pandemic health orders and draconic enforcement measures.
Canada is lurching down a dark path and our authorities are employing tactics well known to tyrants. If you ever wondered what were the genesis points of past Canadian atrocities, we are living it now.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
WFPS respond to multiple calls at the Maples Personal Care Home in Winnipeg during a deadly weekend in early November 2020. (Source: CTV News Winnipeg)
WHAT WENT SO TERRIBLY WRONG IN MANITOBA?
This is a candid assessment of the abysmal handling of Manitoba’s Covid-19 response on the part of our elected and appointed officials who were tasked with guiding the province through a ‘pandemic’. Frankly, everyone of them should resign in disgrace and several should be arrested and charged with criminal negligence causing death.
The Manitoba government releases numerous News Bulletins and since Jan 30, nearly 300 specifically on Covid-19. All of the following information has been gleaned from the government’s own media releases.
Here is a list and some of my commentary on the key Manitoba Covid-19 milestones:
Mar 10: Province looking for more PPE & masks for patients and caregivers
Mar 13: Started ramping up testing & opening clinics, schools to close Mar 23 to Apr 10, events with more than 250 to be cancelled
It would be interesting to see the value of Dynacare’s contract for testing in Manitoba
Mar 17: Closure of daycares, casinos, Personal Care Home (PCH) lockdowns, gatherings down to 50, Province had 266 ventilators & Health Sciences Center created a 30 bed Isolation Ward
Mar 20: State of Emergency declared (continues to this day), all gatherings limited to 50, Manitobans asked to ‘Flatten the Curve’
The Provincial government copied most of the rest of the World with their response to a virus which was heralded as apocalyptic. In essence, we all maxed out the credit cards, took out a second mortgage, quit our jobs, slammed the door shut, and hid cowering in our basements covering our ears so we couldn’t hear the wolf howling outside.
Mar 26: termed a ‘Historic Pandemic’, $4.5M to be spent combating Covid-19 anxiety
“The most important way of reducing the spread of this virus is to stay at home as much as you can,” Roussin said. “We know that this virus is spread, almost exclusively, by symptomatic people and through close, prolonged contact with those individuals.”
Mar 27: gatherings dropped to 10, Provincial highway checkpoints set on borders
Mar 30: restaurants closed to diners, non-essential businesses to close
Mar 31: School cancelled to ‘flatten the curve’, Manitobans told to ‘Stay Home’
For the Apr & May, MB closed. There was zero traffic on the roads, no school, no non-essential businesses open, everyone applied social distancing, all borders were closed, all events started to be cancelled, there was little mask use, in person government related services closed, there was a touch phobia and a run on toilet paper, disinfectant products, and hand sanitizer.
Apr 5: Province to borrow $10B, told to stay home for Easter to flatten the curve.
Apr 9: OP Safe Apart announced with enhanced fines of $486/person & $2542/business, they have since increased to $1296/person & $5000/business plus $298/person for not wearing a mask in a public place (2nd highest in the country). Snitch line & extra officers set up to enforce, more messaging to ‘Flatten the Curve’
Apr 15: Emergency Act to be strengthened & $1B to be spent on Covid-19 efforts
Apr 16: Travel to Northern MB cutoff
Apr 29: Announced plans for slow reopening starting May 4
Manitoba did quite well at keeping the wolf out. Our numbers were very low and we did not see the type of carnage in our Personal Care Homes (PCHs) that was experienced in Ontario and Quebec. You would think provincial officials would have been taking notes.
Manitoba’s current hospital capacity: 2432 Acute Care beds plus 86 ICU with expansion plans for extra 300 AC and 100 ICU emergency spaces
Ok, looks like the Province is ready in case of a Fall resurgence. Maybe all the sacrifice and unprecedented spending to ‘flatten the curve’ bought us some time.
Apr 30: PCHs to restrict staff to one home only, all 127 homes have adequate staffing in place
Good idea? Government is great at making up new rules and laws but is infamous for not understanding the practicalities for implementation. There are reasons homecare workers bounce from residence to residence. A good manager would have looked at this and known immediately that this plan would not be sustainable.
May 4: 2020/21 deficit could possibly hit $5B, MB had the highest direct debt/capita of all provinces
May 22: Gatherings allowed to increase from 25 to 50
Jun 4: MB dropped 64,200 jobs in Apr and had a 13,800 rebound in May, unemployment rate was 11.2%
Jun 23: started planning for PCH visitations
Jun 26: Northern MB opened back up
Jun 29: $280M for PCHs for fire suppression capital projects
Jun 30: Fiscal update, $2.1B spent on Covid-19 measures and touted as 2nd highest as % of GDP, $5B deficit projected if there’s a 2nd wave. 7000 Surgical procedures delayed and still not caught up
Jul 17: cases up-ticked and blamed on Hutterites. (There was a large funeral in AB with thousands of Hutterites attending. Individual Hutterites started to be discriminated against.)
This was the beginning of the government’s ‘Name & Shame’ campaign. Premier Pallister has personally gaslighted numerous individuals and businesses for not being on ‘Team Manitoba’. His melodramatic tirades berate anyone who questions his dictates. He was ‘forced’ to cancel Christmas because we just did not listen!
This has only served to divide the population and has encouraged an army of Karens eager to snitch on their neighbors because they’re not following this or that inane new pandemic rule.
Jul 21: “Thanks to the efforts of all Manitobans, we continue to lead in recovery and have among the lowest COVID-19 test positivity rates in the country,” said Pallister. “That means we can continue our careful, balanced plan to restart our economy, give people back their lives and get Manitobans back to work. Manitoba is one of the safest places in the world to go back to work and get back up on your feet,” said Pallister. “We must maintain our vigilance while growing our way out of this pandemic. I encourage all Manitobans to have their say in our next steps of restarting our economy.”
This did not age well as our rates in the fall were some of the worst in North America.
Jul 29: Front line workers to receive $1377
By this point, Manitobans were starting to move around again and businesses were open. People still kept their distance and being outdoors and camping were popular. Even on the beaches, people ‘social distanced’.
Aug 11: In the Prairie Mountain Health (PMH) region there was a slight uptick in cases related to Hutterite colonies and some Brandon clusters connected to close contacts. Vehicles for the Brandon testing site stretched for miles.
Aug 17: Advice from government was to wash hands, social distance, and the first instance to consider masks if social distancing was not possible. SuperStore and other major retailers were making mask use mandatory as of Aug 24
Aug 19: Premier Pallister, after complaints from parents, mandated masks for Grades 4-12 upon return to Sep classes
This was another knee-jerk reaction from the government. They were fine with sending the kids back to school without masks. Then immediately after an outcry from concerned parents, out came the first of the mask dictates.
You know what, I do not care if you want to wear a mask or not, fill your boots. There is some wishy washy evidence about their effectiveness that only surprisingly came out with this virus and none others, ever! But if you believe in them, fine, that’s how placebos work.I do notice that people are not avoiding each other as much anymore.
Masks also gave the government a convenient focus point to show they were serious about dealing with this thing. They could also gaslight the ‘anti-mask’ malcontents and point fingers and the spotlight away from failed government policies.
Aug 24: PMH region moved to Condition Orange for minimum 2 weeks (it lasted a month). Mandatory masks and gatherings in & out limited to 10. Cases in PMH starting Aug 6 – Sep 16 were: 18, 10, 2, 20, 11, 3, 4, 12, 25, 3, 9, 20, 2, 13, 17, 5, 24, 45, 35 (this was the day PMH moved to Orange), 10, 8, 9, 18, 31, 12, 13, 7, 8, 6, 1, 4, 3, 6, 0, 1, 2, 4, 2, 0, 1, 0, 1, 4. Hospitalizations, ICU visits, and deaths in the region barely moved.
My suspicion for the ‘high’ case days is there was mass testing at the Hutterite colonies and no surprise, they found extra infections. Obviously, because the colonies could be closed down easily, there was no wider community spread.
But the panic over case numbers gave the government the excuse to put the entire Southwest corner of the Province into a partial lockdown. Manitoba had been successful at keeping the wolf away but a little yip sent us running back to the basement.
Sep 3: travel to Northern MB was closed again and there were more mask recommendations from the Province
Schools reopened around Sep 8, and immediately cases were identified at various schools. They were mostly described as coming from outside of the school with no general outbreaks. But Sep 22, 20 cases were connected with a Winnipeg school. Mask use in Winnipeg was already increasing both in and out.
There are good reasons to get the children back into school. One big one is that there is not enough child care if they were all sent home again. But drive by a school at recess. The kids are swapping germs like they always have and the hundreds of ‘School Exposures’ list backs that up.
The Government lies that children do not spread the virus. Otherwise, why were the 20 schools of the Hanover School Division shut down? Why are the higher grades staying home an extra two weeks after Christmas vacation? But if you apply a risk analysis, society needs to take these extra cases on the chin and live with it.
Sep 18: PMH was brought back to yellow but there was a ‘concern’ about the rising case numbers in Winnipeg. PMH was touted as a success story because they ‘followed’ the rules.
Cases, cases, cases….so what? They’re juicy high numbers for public consumption & handy for gaslighting different regions but without context over how serious each case is, again, so what?
Sep 28: Winnipeg went to Orange with mandatory masks and gathering sizes of only 10 in or out.
It is glaringly obvious that despite mass mask wearing, social distancing, and hiding in our basements, the wolf had not gone away. The virus was endemic to the Province and all we had accomplished was to have it roar back as viruses typically do after the summer lull.
Starting in Oct, there were warnings that Manitobans should not gather for Thanksgiving (Oct 10). There were numerous case outbreaks all Oct in schools, prisons, and PCHs. Outbreaks in PCHs started to explode starting around Oct 20. Healthcare workers were identified as the carriers into some PCHs. Outbreaks are still continuing in numerous PCHs, schools, and prisons.
This was the point of breakdown in the PCHs and should have been sending wake-up calls to those in charge. PCH staff were burning out and bringing the infection into the residences with devastating results reminiscent of the spring carnage experienced in Ontario and Quebec. Funny how the PPE protocols did not protect the elderly in the scores of homes that have experienced outbreaks.
Oct 7: During the Speech from the Throne: “This year has been like no other, yet we have weathered it better than most,” said Pallister. “The resilience of Manitoba’s economy, finances, public services, and most of all, our people, have stood out strong. I am confident that if we keep working together, guided by Manitoba values, we will come out of this pandemic stronger and more prosperous.”
It didn’t take long for Pallister to be caught out in this lie.
Oct 9: An emergency $500M infusion of cash sought by government to add to $1.577B already spent on Covid-19
Oct 19: Province mandated more business closures, reduced gathering sizes, and liquor establishment curfews in Winnipeg
Oct 26: travel to Northern MB shut down again
Nov 2: Premier Pallister announced MB was ready for a 2nd wave, there was a focus on more testing. In Winnipeg, if one household resident was symptomatic all residents had to isolate pending a negative test result. Exemptions were made for healthcare & First Responders if they were asymptomatic. Winnipeg went to a hard lockdown.
Nov 5: The Premier emphasized that he was bringing the non-compliance hammer down and encouraged Manitobans to snitch on their neighbors. A contract with a private security company, G4S, was being written up so a total of 3300 government personnel could issue Covid-19 tickets. Meanwhile, PCH orders were changed to exempt workers from only working in one home.
Nov 12: The entire Province went to condition Red and hard lockdowns
Nov 13: A team was being sent to Maples PCH to determine what went wrong. Over 50 of the 200 residents have passed away so far.
The staff at Maples conducted a fo’c’sle sitdown mutiny when they en-mass called in sick and contacted 911 numerous times on the evening of Nov 6. People can only work in impossible conditions for so long before they give up in despair.
Where were the Health inspectors who should have been keeping tabs on a system that was starting to fall apart? PCHs had gone to hard lockdown mid-Oct. When things came to a head at Maples, well over 30 PCHs had declared outbreaks.
In the Navy, you are taught to stay ahead of the Ship instead of surfing behind her in the wake. The Navy also has a Board of Inquiry after every major incident in order to assign blame and to roll heads.
People need to go to jail for what happened in these homes.
The average age of Covid-19 mortality is exactly the same as the average life expectancy! If the media wasn’t blaring about the pandemic, would we even know there was one?
Dec 8: Premier Pallister cancels Christmas and New Year’s. He continues to ‘Name & Shame’ non-compliant offenders. He did let up on drive-in religious services after some high profile church incidents.
Frankly, my belief is if Pallister had enough troops, he would place all of MB under house arrest. Thankfully, he only has 3300 ticketing goons and a volunteer army of snitching Karens.
Dec 9: $7.7M announced for PCHs to help with staffing and operating expenses
This latest funding announcement, is too little too late. It was identified from day one who the virus was going to be worst towards. But instead of being proactive, the Province has allowed the system to self-monitor itself and they are always playing catch-up.
Ken Waddell has been writing some scathing editorials at the Neepawa Banner over the Government’s handling of Covid-19. In many of them, he has mentioned some proactive steps the health officials could have been touting. One in particular is the steps taken by the local hog plant which has kept the virus out. So here’s a question, how can the meat plants be so successful when healthcare ‘professionals’ are failing so badly?
Here is the answer. Healthcare in Canada sucks and has been that way for decades. PCH service is even worse. Our much vaunted systems are run by incompetent administrators who know how to ‘play the game’ instead of actually knowing how to run things. Our elected officials care more about looking like they are doing something rather than actually doing something.
Increasingly, western governments and their populations have become risk adverse. Government has sought to control more and more of our lives. Then a moderate crisis came along and their go-to response was to SHUT EVERYTHING DOWN! They went all in with a philosophy of making the goal zero cases yielding zero deaths. The population is going along with it, so why change course or admit you were wrong?
To be perfectly blunt, old, sick people die. Also, to be direct, the West is so divorced from reality they cannot handle this simple fact of life. The wolf eventually gets us all. Sadly, most people are so narcissistic they only feign concern for the elderly. The most strident of Karens are concerned only for their own well-being.
The numbers for Manitoba show we are dying from Covid-19 at the SAME EXACT RATE AS NORMAL LIFE EXPECTANCY! We literally have no abnormal death spikes, our hospitals and ICUs are not being overrun or in danger of being overrun. Unless the media told you, you wouldn’t even know we were in a pandemic.
Of course, the virus is dangerous mainly to the old and sick but instead of targeted solutions with acceptable risk/benefit outcomes, we have gone with an untenable zero risk model. This will only result in an endless game of whack-a-mole which we will never win and ruin the Province and thousands of lives. The cure is fast becoming worse than the disease. Maybe a fast roll-out of an effective vaccine will get us off this ride of horrors.
Heaven help us if we ever have to face an actual wolf at the door.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
Mathematics is a joy to me. It does not care about your feelings or beliefs. 2 + 2 = 4 and does not change because of your gender, sexual orientation, or skin colour. If it ever does change because of political virtue signaling, then your car will not start and planes will fall out of the sky.
Canada is chest deep into the Covid-19 crisis and we should have some numbers to more confidently project what has happened and what may be in store. Unlike the Imperial College models that were projecting 1% of the country’s population was going to outright die, so far Canada is well short of that at 12,301 deaths (Dec 02) vice the apocalyptic number of 370,000.
If you are a fan of the Road Runner cartoons, there inevitably comes a point where Wile E. Coyote heads right off a cliff. He is okay until he looks down, then the cruel hand of gravity reaches up and down he goes despite all his arm flapping. So in spite of all the arm flapping on the part of politicians, their attendant medical professionals, and cheerleading Karens, what are the observable mortality numbers saying to us?
The caveat in this presentation is did I introduce any personal bias? I am well aware of the phrase, “Lies, damnedlies, and statistics“, so I attempted to refrain from not letting the numbers speak for themselves. I did have the bias that I have seen presentations from Ivor Cummins and Genevieve Briand, Johns Hopkins University on the numbers from the States and Europe. I wanted to see what Canadian numbers were doing.
So with the preamble out of the way, let’s dive in.
For the last two decades, Canadian mortality has been increasing at a relatively steady rate of +3475 deaths/yr. Some years are worse than others, some better. Our population has been growing and the Boomers are getting older, so this makes sense.
The big killers of Canadians are Cancer and Heart Attack & Stroke. Cancer has been increasing at about 920 deaths/yr while Heart Attack & Stroke have decreased 260 deaths/yr. Cancer became the #1 killer after 2007.
Accidents, Chronic Lower Respiratory Disease, and Influenza & Pneumonia are next up but orders of magnitude behind the big killers.
Strangely, Accidents have been making serious increases over the last 20 years.
Flu & Pneumonia kick along at the 6000-8000 range each year.
As a side note, suicide rates saw a slight uptick over the decades from 3600 to about 4000/yr. It’ll be interesting to see the numbers after this year with all the clinical depression due to the crisis and government actions.
Now, let’s add in what 2020 has been doing so far this year:
The total mortalities reported across Canada comes to 207,155. Our expected mortality given an average death rate of an extra 3475/yr should be 210,630. When reading the StatCan table, the numbers are not complete so the far yellow line is a guess that 75% of deaths have been tabulated. So by year end, that projection is about 276,000. That’s substantially short of what would be expected but who knows what lag time there is with respect to StatCan receiving correct numbers.
The second to last set of bars are the actual reported 2020 numbers to date.
Now here’s the weird part, which was also picked up by the Johns Hopkins researcher. Cancer and Heart & Stoke numbers are fairly linear with a slight dip from winter down to summer, then climbing. When looking at the provinces with numbers through to Sep, there are no large upticks that should skew these estimations badly.
After taking the first half year numbers and doubling them, you should have a good projection of the year’s totals. My assumption was any numbers past June may have not been finalized. So with Cancer and a growth rate of 920/yr, we would expect 81,072 deaths. Heart Attack & Stroke with a decrease of 260/yr would be 70,850.
But the projection of Cancer deaths after six months of stats is only 75,150 which is a shortfall of 5,922 deaths. Heart Attacks & Stroke is projected at 62,510 which is also a shortfall of 8,340 deaths, for a total of 14,262 missing deaths by the end of the year.
Did we cure cancer this year and in all the hubbub of Covid-19, someone forgot to report on it? Coincidentally, our Covid-19 deaths are just over 12,000. Weird, eh?
So, how do Canadians die on a month to month basis?
Jan, Dec, Mar, and Feb are the worst months for mortality. Some years there are spikes and some years are calm. Every 3 to 4 years there is a bad spike in Jan. On the opposite years, it looks like Dec gives the spike.
In general, Canadians die the most with the biggest swings starting in Jan then it calms down into the summer and gradually picks up through the fall into winter.
Feb & Mar 1998 was a bad year that coincided with a bad flu season that year.
2013, 2015, & 2018 saw bad Jan spikes. 2018 started off badly with spikes in Jan, Feb, & Mar. This coincided with a bad 2018 flu season which was termed the worst in five years.
So, let’s add in the deaths for 2020 and see what we get:
Obviously, there were the big jumps in Apr & May attributed to when Covid-19 got really bad, particularly in ON & QC in the Long Term Care (LTC) facilities. But there were already significant upticks in Jan, Feb, & Mar. Something was already going on and usually upticks at this time of year seem to signal something going on with the flu.
Jun seemed to flatten and decrease. Jul and Sep really nosed down but again, those numbers might not be finalized yet. But it is a good indication that after a quick rush of deaths, things may have settled and even decreased.
Here’s a great, little interactive tool on the StatCan website:
Obvious Covid-19 spike for 2020. But compare that spike to Jan’s 2018 flu influenced spike, 6745 to 6630. I don’t recall any crazy lockdowns or slaughtering of our economy because of 2018’s mortalities, maybe I just missed it. Then in mid-Jun, death rates are back within five year norms. When did all those mandatory mask rules come in again?
2020 numbers drop off out through Sep but because of incomplete numbers.
The cool thing about this interactive tool is you can check out each province. I’ll let you scroll through the rest but the most striking point is this was not a Canadian pandemic. This was a Quebec pandemic. Ontario only had a bit of a bump in comparison. This would coincide with the bloodbath in their LTC homes.
BC had a peak of deaths mid-Mar and AB has no pattern other than a slight overall increase of 30-40 deaths each month. You wouldn’t even know anything was going on in the rest of the country.
Logarithmic scale is used to show the rate of change. When you go to the interactive chart on the Worldometer site, the Covid-19 deaths were small but grew quickly until the curve ‘flattened’ at the end of May. But the rate of growth was not exponential as everyone feared when governments all hit the panic button. In fact, Mar 18, the curve was already curling over on its own. Considering Canadian Provinces had not instituted Emergency Orders even by that point, you have to ask if all those measures did anything.
Also, since we are in a so-called ‘2nd Wave’, ummmm, where’s the evidence for that? The rate of change in the death rate is almost dead flat but our lockdown measures are stricter than ever and Christmas is going to be cancelled. Sure the media is shouting about the case count each day but if Canadians aren’t falling over dead in the streets it sure seems like a nothing burger.
So, I ask again, what has all the arm flapping here in Canada been about? By the mortality stats, this does not appear to be a particularly bad year compared to even 2018. By the fall numbers and historical norms, we’re past the bad spike and into regular death rates.
Here’s my take away point: politicians, their health experts plus the media have access to this info. Everyone does because it is public and StatCan does an excellent job gathering numbers. But no one hears anything but doom and gloom. This tells me that our overlords are either incompetent or distorting the truth on purpose. One thing for sure, the precedent is set for the next time a little bump in the road shows up. Once governments see how easy it is to rip away your freedoms, they will repeat.
Unfortunately, many Canadians without cushy government jobs or with the ability to work from home are desperately trying to not look down. They know that no amount of arm flapping is going to save them from the big splat.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
Most Canadians would hold the belief that their sacred institutions from the Federal Parliament down through their Province and Municipal elected officials would have their backs in time of strife or mayhem. Most Canadians have access to 911 service whose operators quickly determine, “Police, Fire, or Ambulance”. In extremis, when provincial resources fail, the Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) are on call for Aid to the Civil Power operations.
The public should expect that with the billions of tax dollars spent on emergency preparedness with the central coordination run through Public Safety Canada that Canadians should be well taken care of in the event of calamity.
Well, Canada, depending on the scope of the disaster, be prepared to look after yourself.
Here are a few examples to illustrate my point:
A snow covered Argus at the Comox Air Museum – Photo courtesy of Katherine Bickford, http://carlykb.com/gateway/
Comox Snowfall Cancels Christmas Military Flights
If anyone has lived on the West Coast of BC, either in the Lower Mainland or on the Island, they are somewhat acquainted with that weird meteorological phenomenon called snow. It will occasionally show up, usually in multiples of feet, create absolute havoc for a couple of days, then melt with the subsequent rain. The rest of Canada would take the opportunity to make fun of us for a change while they were suffering from the more usual Canadian winter weather.
Up Island at 19 Wing Comox, there is usually a good wallop of the white stuff maybe once a year. The RCAF are not stupid and like any Canadian airport, they have a Snow and Ice Removal (SNIC) plan. But all the planning does not help when a particular weather event happens rarely. Hence, each and every year, it is like people have never seen snow or what to do with it when it shows up.
That is when the holes of the Swiss cheese all line up and an incident happens such as one occasion while I was the Duty Operations officer for 442 Squadron.
The Christmas Military Flight Airbus had flown into Comox and was ready to start the long cross country journey across Canada to Trenton, ON. A large snowfall had occurred overnight and since the airfield did not have a hangar large enough, the aircraft remained parked outside overnight. The actual snow was not so much the issue as was the ability to de-ice the aircraft whose dimensions were too large for the civilian terminal machines to take care of.
Back in the day when the Boeing 707, aka White Knuckle Airlines, flew, the frequency of flights would be two or three times per week. Nowadays, larger military aircraft flying into Comox is rare.
But, hey, no problem, call in the military de-icer. Whoops, the one guy who knew how to run the machine was on Christmas leave out of the Valley. Okay, we pulled out the Operator’s Manual to see how to run the machine. Fine, but whoops again, the barrels of de-icing fluid were half a mile up a snow plugged road that was very low on the SNIC plan priority list. Long story short, the Keystone Kops bumbling caused the cancellation of the flight and the ruination of hundreds of military member’s Christmas plans.
Lesson Learned: This debacle occurred due to a combination of factors involving the rarity of a weather event and the nature of how the RCAF is run. Snow occasionally shows up in Comox but it is only a bother for a few days until the rain washes it away. You can plan for it but institutional memory is short and can be complicated with frequent postings or lack of adequately trained personnel who are not familiar with how to handle semi-complicated situations.
If the wind was steady and freshening from the Southeast, would not a prudent person look towards where the fire might head towards?
Town of Slave Lake Burns Down in 2011
According to news articles and the subsequent 2012 KPMG report, it was a miracle that no one died during the evacuation of the Town of Slave Lake on May 15, 2011.
Words like massive, unprecedented, rapidly-developing were used to describe a wall of fire being pushed into town by 100 km/h winds. The fire, later determined to be arson, cost Albertans about $1 billion in damage and recovery costs.
The arsonist has yet to be identified and no blame was ever laid against any of the people in charge of responding to the inferno. But should have the authorities been better prepared?
The KPMG report made a series of recommendations mostly based on better communication and cooperation amongst the disparate entities in charge of the area’s emergency response. One crucial factor overlooked, except for a single minor mention related to the Provincial Operations Center (Pg 63), was literally no one was paying attention to the weather!
It was a hot, dry spring in fire country. There were numerous wildfires in the area, some to the SW of town and Fire 65 (the one that burnt down the town) was to the SE. Would you not think that a single person in charge would consult a weather forecast to see if any weather phenomenon such as high winds were in the forecast?!?
In the military, literally every briefing started with a Met Report so that everyone, especially the Commanding Officer, could weigh the risks associated with the forecast weather situation. Then as the day goes on, there are regular weather updates especially if a rapidly approaching system is expected to impact operations. Also, when all else fails, you look out the window.
Going back through the meteorological records from the Slave Lake Airport starting at midnight May 13, the wind was from the West at 20 kph, veered North at 0900, dropped to 10 kph and continued to veer to ESE at 1600 picking up again to about 20 kph. The barometric pressure started to steeply decline at this point. For the next three days the wind stayed in the Southeast with the really strong winds occurring on the 15th, the day of the main evacuation.
This type of weather indicates there was a deepening, west to east moving, low pressure system with a steep pressure gradient to the west of town. The weather forecasters would have predicted the high winds but no one was paying attention.
Lesson Learned: Complacency and lack of specific knowledge almost got a lot of people killed. The area was described as ‘fire country’ so no one was particularly concerned about fires in the area. The arson, whether deliberate or accidental, should have been foreseen because of the conditions. But the most egregious lack of foresight was the collective oversight of simply looking up the forecast or even noticing that the wind was steady and freshening from the direction of a rapidly growing fire.
Coast Guard Station Sea Island – Photo courtesy of Duane Currie
Lack of Coordination Between Lower Mainland Emergency Services
The over-riding emergency fear for Vancouver’s Lower Mainland is the inevitable ‘Big Quake’. To that end, the province has attempted to prepare for it.
Thankfully, the 2010 Winter Olympics helped officials as they were able to tap into extra money which was put towards emergency preparedness. A great example is the province’s E-Comm system (finally fully rolled out in 2018) whereupon all the seperate agencies can actually communicate with one another.
During an emergency, the first item to fail is communications. While I was with the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG) in Vancouver, our communication link onshore at an incident scene was usually a police member with a cell phone. Useless! It was just easier to look for the flashing lights as the hovercraft sped up the Fraser River.
Unfortunately, Canada usually waits until after a disaster before politicians put money into proper prevention. Again with the CCG, we attempted to set up exercises with the police and fire services but were turned down as there was not money in the budget for the extra overtime.
Lesson Learned: Money for proper emergency preparedness in Canada is usually too little, too late. Of course, you have to balance budgets and be reasonable but there are simple, prudent, relatively low cost measures which are not being considered due to other spending priorities. Canada has a history of being reactive vice forward thinking.
This brings me to the unfolding debacle of Canada’s Covid-19 response. I will focus on one small aspect otherwise this article would be too lengthy.
This fall’s response by Manitoba’s Health Ministry with regards to protecting our most frail and elderly has moved into the territory of criminal neglect. From MB’s 2nd Covid-19 News Bulletin dated Feb 07, they were already advising people with flu-like systems to avoid senior residences. Quickly after that, there were ample examples coming from Italy, Spain, Quebec, etc. of what should have been prepared for. The CAF Report on LTC homes was harrowing reading and should have been a wake-up call to the other provinces.
MB Premier Brian Pallister did not listen.
To their credit, the Manitoba health system kept the Covid-19 virus out of the Long Term Care (LTC) homes during the spring spike which decimated the facilities in ON and QC.
But this fall has been a bloodbath, particularly in homes like the Winnipeg Revera Maples Long Term Care Home. According to the government’s News Bulletins, for the month of November, a full 25% of the 200 bed home’s residents have succumbed from the virus. On Nov 13, the Province announced it was setting up a review of Maples plus other hard hit facilities. No kidding!
What exactly did the Province think was going to happen in these homes whose staff consists of low paid, mostly recent immigrants? I do not blame the staff whatsoever as they have been shouldering ever increasing workloads and health issues with miniscule extra support from government. At Maples, it finally reached a breaking point on Nov 6 when the staff mutinied by en-mass calling in sick for the evening shift.
In the Navy, this would have been called a Messdeck Lock-in where the lower deckers refuse to come out until their demands for better treatment and conditions were met. Work people too hard, for too long without support and they become despondent and rebel.
Ministry inspectors and the Health department should have foreseen these issues but blindly disregarded obvious problems with the LTC homes. Too little, too late and in my opinion government officials and LTC home management need to be charged and jailed for negligence.
Do you feel safe with the fact that all these agencies are supposedly in charge of keeping you safe during a major emergency?
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
Does Manitoba have a Plan to end the Health Emergency?
The short answer to my query posed above, is no.
It appears that the Manitoba Government is continuing to knee-jerk react when it comes to dealing with this pesky virus. A little bump in numbers of cases over the last few weeks has the population clamouring for lockdowns, quarantines, and border closures. It appears that despite the miniscule numbers of hospitalizations, ICU beds used, and deaths (seven, one, & thirteen), the goal now seems to be total eradication of the virus with zero cases no matter the severity.
So, despite the massive intrusion of government upon the lives of Manitobans, the incredible hardship being borne by businesses and individuals, and the incredible cost being incurred, the media has decided to act as cheerleaders for the draconian crackdowns. Zero effort is being made to question the Government’s decisions.
To be fair, I would say our leadership is being asked to make unprecedented decisions which may ultimately be the correct course of action. But in the absence of media asking the hard questions and demanding answers, the public is left uninformed and divided with all the opinions and contradictary information flying around.
I would like to point out that a few voices in the media wilderness are piping up and imploring the Government to figure out an exit strategy. Ken Waddell, who runs the Neepawa Banner, put out an excellent editorial today which I encourage you to read. It’s worth noting that Ken owns the paper, so he is not beholden to higher corporate interests and can speak his mind.
So if I were able to hold Premier Pallister’s feet to the fire over his Covid-19 strategy, I would have the following pointed questions for him, his Health Minister, and his Chief Medical Officer:
The goal from the outset of the Covid-19 pandemic was stated as ‘Flatten the Curve’ so the hospitals and ICUs were not overwhelmed. Kudos and back pats all around as MB never even came close to taxing our medical system. So why is there still a Health Emergency Order in place? Even with the uptick in numbers there wasn’t a commensurate rapid rise in hospital patients. Under what conditions will you release the Province from the Emergency Order?
According to StatsCan, Manitobans die from all causes at a rate of 30/day. BTW, what has the suicide rate been like since this all started? We’ve lost a whopping 13 people from Covid-19 related deaths (I’m guessing there was co-morbidity and old age involved). Is this Government operating under the premise that even one death from this virus is too many?
Have the 13 deaths, although regrettable, been worth the estimated 15% of Manitoba’s businesses closed for good and the rest of our damaged economy. Were the 13 deaths worth the extra $10 Billion plus in extra debt the Province has taken on? Were 13 deaths worth the suspension of our rights, freedoms, & liberties which the Government shows no sign of returning? Were a whole 13 deaths worth tossing a million Manitoban’s lives upside down?
Now masks seem to be the order of the day. Please show me the medical evidence you’re basing your decision on. If masks are so successful, why weren’t they mandatory back during the lockdowns and quarantines when the State of Emergency was first declared? How much did public pressure play into the decision to start making masks mandatory in schools and in the Prairie Mountain Health Region?
As for the Hutterite colonies, I hope you realize you’re putting a big target on their backs by identifying them. But since you have and it’s been stated that they’re the source of many of the new cases in Westman, do you have evidence of widespread community spread of the virus due to Hutterite activity? In addition, on the affected colonies, was there widespread testing or only testing of the symptomatic?
What criteria, other than a modest rise in case numbers, did you use to put the PMH region under Orange conditions?
The PMH region takes in the whole SW corner of the Province. Please substantiate why citizens of, for example, Swan River are being forced to follow Condition Orange procedures when the actual clusters are located in the Brandon region?
What is the exit strategy for dealing with this virus? Seems to me that a strategy of protecting the vulnerable such as the elderly and immune-compromised along with reminding Manitobans to keep up good hygiene habits would allow us to go back to normal. Instead, this Government seems determined to keep Manitobans hostage under Health Emergency Orders until there is never another single case ever.
It will be interesting as to just how far Manitobans can be pushed before more and more of us poke up our heads and cry out ‘SHOW ME THE BODIES’ and then reject the Government’s intrusion on our lives.
Blair is a personification of a ‘Jack of All Trades and Master of None’. He has held several careers and has all the T-shirts. Time to add the title Blogger to the list.
